Bitcoin price fell sharply today, falling from an intraday high of $104,000 to $98,113, erasing earlier gains and marking a decisive breakdown in price action.
Starting in morning trading, the Bitcoin price fell consistently from the highs of $102,000 to the lows of $97,870.
According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, the last time the Bitcoin price was close to these levels (below $98,000) was in early May – around May 8 depending on the time zone. The Bitcoin price was above $100,000 for over 40 days after that before falling back to $98,000 in late June.
One possible reason for the bitcoin price is long-term holders unloading at record highs. Data from CryptoQuant shows they have sold around 815,000 BTC in 30 days – the most since early 2024 – as spot and ETF demand weakens. Profit taking dominates, with $3 billion in realized gains on November 7 alone.
Institutional buying has also fallen below daily mining supply, adding to the selling pressure. Prices are hovering close to the crucial 365-day moving average around $102,000, and failure to hold it could trigger deeper losses, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro analysis.
Analysts at Bitfinex say the current bitcoin pullback reflects mid-cycle pullbacks, with the decline from October’s highs matching the typical 22% pullbacks seen throughout the 2023-2025 bull market.
“It is also important to note that even at the $100,000 level, approximately 72 percent of the total BTC supply remains in surplus,” Bitfinex analysts wrote to Bitcoin Magazine. They believe that a brief relief is likely, but that a sustained recovery will require new demand.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts say the bitcoin price’s current estimated cost of production of $94,000 serves as a historical price floor, suggesting limited downside.
The analysts believe that increasing network difficulties have pushed production costs higher, keeping bitcoin’s price-to-cost ratio near historic lows. The analysts maintain a bold 6-12 month upside projection of around $170,000.
All this comes as the US government has reopened after a record 43-day shutdown, the longest in history, following President Trump’s signing of a funding bill late Wednesday.
While federal operations resume, recovery will be slow. Federal workers are still awaiting back pay and flight delays may continue.
Timot Lamarre, director of market research at Unchained, described bitcoin to Bitcoin Magazine as a “canary-in-a-coal-mine for liquidity drying up in the market.” He notes that the recent government shutdown caused the Treasury’s general account to swell, absorbing liquidity, and adds that with the government reopening, “more liquidity injected into the system will benefit bitcoin’s dollar price in the short term.”
Agencies like the IRS are facing huge backlogs, and national parks are struggling to recover lost revenue. The short-term funding measure only extends through January 30, leaving the threat of another shutdown.
It will take time to return to normal as the effects of the extended closure continue to ripple through the economy and public services.
Bitcoin price roared into October as the government shutdown began, rising to new all-time highs above $126,000. But the excitement quickly gave way to turbulence – the bitcoin price fluctuated wildly throughout the rest of October and into November.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is $98,470.
Despite a generally bullish mood in the market, the bitcoin price has continued to slide deeper into the month.
Bitcoin price and Nasdaq is the correlation that only hurts: Wintermute
Bitcoin is still closely tied to the Nasdaq, but it’s showing an unusual pattern: it reacts more strongly to stock market declines than it does to gains, according to a recent report from Wintermute.
This “negative bias” – falling harder on bad stock days than rising on good ones – is typically seen in bear markets, not when BTC is near all-time highs. This suggests that investors are somewhat tired, not euphoric.
Two main factors drive this. First, attention and capital have shifted toward stocks in 2025. Large tech and Nasdaq growth stocks are soaking up much of the risk appetite that could have flowed into crypto. Bitcoin moves with the market when things go wrong, but doesn’t get the same boost when optimism returns, acting as a high-beta tail of macro risk.
Second, liquidity in crypto is thinner than before. Stablecoin issuance has stalled, ETF inflows have slowed, and exchange depth has not fully recovered. This makes downward movement more pronounced and widens the performance gap.
That said, BTC is holding up remarkably well, according to Wintermute. Even with this persistent downside bias, it is less than 20% below its all-time high. The pattern is unusually near the top – it usually appears near the bottom – but it also reflects Bitcoin’s growing maturity as a macro asset.