Bitcoin price has started to show clear signs of weakness, and the recent move back below six figures has forced a reassessment of the near-term outlook. With several key technical and on-chain levels now lost, I have recalibrated my base case so that the probability of testing new all-time highs in the coming weeks has dropped below 50%. That could change quickly if major levels are recovered, but until then conditions look like a market shifting away from trend strength and into a deeper corrective phase.
Bitcoin Price: Is “Buying The Dip” Still The Right Move?
Bitcoin is already in a significant decline, but buying every dip is not always the optimal approach outside of a confirmed bull trend. In a bear market environment, what appear to be attractive declines can still lead to significantly lower prices. Short-term rallies and sharp retracements are typical in bear markets, so reacting to data rather than predicting a bottom becomes far more important.
This pattern of multiple dips is evident when we analyze Short-term Holder Realized Price chart during the last cycle. It is also clear to see how this metric acted as a key resistance throughout this phase, with sustained recovery only experienced when BTC regained STH realized price levels.
There is one caveat: if price meaningfully recovers key levels, the whole picture changes. Therefore, a small allocation on this dip may make sense, while holding off on further buying until we see deeper macro confluence is a more defensive approach.
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Bitcoin Price: Key Levels You Need to Watch Right Now
The MVRV Z-Score and that Bitcoin Realized Price provide a clearer sense of where the broader market’s cost base sits. The realized cost base for the network is currently clustered around the mid-$50,000s, but this number continues to rise on a daily basis.
A similar story emerges 200-week moving averageas this is also currently in the mid $50,000s. Historically, points where this metric meets price have presented strong long-term accumulation opportunities.
These levels are slowly rising each day, meaning a potential bottom could form at $60,000, $65,000 or higher, depending on how long Bitcoin spends trending down. The important point is that value tends to emerge when the spot price trades close to the network’s average historical price and the confluence is provided from key levels of buying support.
Bitcoin Price: What Supply and Demand Signals Really Say
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple remains an important benchmark for identifying stress points among long-term and experienced holders. Very low readings indicate that large, old coins are not moving, which has often aligned with market bottoms. However, a sharp rise can indicate capitulation pressure, which often accompanies or precedes significant market turning points.
Right now, the metric continues to rise as the price falls, suggesting that many holders are spreading out in weakness. That’s not characteristic of a bicycle bottom, where forced sales are usually extreme and compressed into a short window. At this stage, the market still appears to be relaxing rather than exhausting. Alongside this, Long-term Keeper Supply has been in a downward trend. Ideally, this stabilizes and starts to rise again before it calls any major bottoms, as bottoms form when the most patient participants start to hold, not abandon.
Bitcoin Price: What Funding Rates Reveal About Capitulation (or Lack thereof)
Periods of peak fear tend to be evident through heavy short positioning, negative financing as shown in Bitcoin Funding Ratesand large realized losses. These conditions signal that weaker hands have capitulated and stronger hands are absorbing this supply.
The market has yet to show the signature panic selling and shorting often associated with major cyclical lows. Without stress in derivatives and without a rush to take losses, it is hard to argue that the market has completely washed out.
Bitcoin Price: The Exact Levels Needed to Recover to Kill the Bear Case
Assume that the bearish scenario is wrong, which of course would be the preferred outcome. If so, Bitcoin should begin to regain key structural levels, including the $100,000 psychological zone, Short-term Holder Realized Priceand the 350-day moving average as depicted in Golden Ratio Multiplier diagram.
Temporary wicks or one-day closures are not enough. Sustained closes above these levels, along with strength in risk assets globally, suggest the trend is changing. But until that happens, the data is leaning cautiously.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Final Thoughts on Dip vs. New Bear Market
Since they broke below several key levels, the outlook has become more defensive. There is no structural weakness in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, but the short-term market structure does not look like a healthy bull trend.
For now, the recommended strategy is not to buy at every dip, wait for confluence before scaling heavily, respect macro conditions and ratio trends, and only get aggressive when the market has proven its strength. Most investors never identify the exact top or bottom; the goal is to place close to high probability areas with enough confirmation to avoid months of unnecessary drawdown.
For a more in-depth look at this topic, watch our latest YouTube video here: My Bitcoin Strategy Going Forward
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.