Bitcoin’s price action in 2025 pointed to a market shaped less by speculative and impulsive profits and more by macro forces.
Bitcoin price traded through a wide range last year. According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, bitcoin surged above $126,000 during the mid-to-late year advance, driven by ETF inflows and optimism surrounding US regulatory clarity. The highlights didn’t last.
In the fourth quarter, tighter financial conditions and high real interest rates weighed on risk assets. Bitcoin price fell sharply from its peak and ended the year close to $87,000. It is on track for its first full-year decline since 2022.
While the decline from the highs was steep and can feel negative, longer-term charts tell a different, more bullish story.
Bitcoin’s annual lows continued to trend higher. Data shows the annual low rising from $366 in 2016 to $76,329 in 2025. Each major cycle has set a higher floor despite deep declines along the way.
The pattern held after major lows in 2018 and 2022. In both cases, bitcoin later established higher yearly lows. The 2025 low is well above previous cycle lows, even after a volatile year.
The gap between the annual highs and lows widened in 2025. That range reflects continued volatility and rapid changes in sentiment. It also highlights a market that is still adjusting to its growing size and popularity.
Analysts say the rising floor suggests deeper capital support than in previous cycles. Long-term owners have shown greater willingness to accumulate during declines. Foreclosures have remained concentrated during short liquidation events rather than prolonged crashes.
Macro conditions played a central role throughout the year. Inflation remained sticky. Central banks kept policy restrictive longer than expected. This background favored yield-bearing assets and pressured speculative positioning.
Bitcoin price correlation with broader risk markets increased. Price movements followed stocks more closely, especially during US trading hours. At the end of the year, crypto assets were often sold while US stocks were open.
That pattern showed signs of changing as 2026 began. Bitcoin price rose above $90,000 during early US trading sessions.
October 10: Bitcoin price’s humbling ‘down to earth’ moment
Yet the decisive moment in 2025 came earlier.
On October 10, the bitcoin price suffered a massive and sharp intraday plunge of around $12,000. The move triggered billions of dollars in liquidations across derivatives markets. The total crypto market capitalization fell significantly in a single session.
The selloff set the stage for a prolonged pullback that is still being felt in the broader crypto market. Within weeks, bitcoin was trading more than 30% below its peak near $126,000. The decline erased much of the optimism that had dominated forecasts at the start of the year.
Before 2025, the course targets were aggressive. Many analysts and executives expected a sustained breakout well beyond previous highs. ETF inflows and institutional adoption formed the core of most bullish theses.
These expectations did not materialize. ETF demand absorbed supply but did not trigger reflexive rallies. Liquidity conditions remained tight. Take advantage of repeated limited upward movements.
By the end of the year, the gap between forecasts and realized prices was clear. Bitcoin closed well below even the more conservative projections made earlier this year.
Despite that, the annual low chart should attract attention and comforting thoughts.
The constant annual lows reflect a maturing market. Bitcoin is bigger, more regulated and more integrated into global markets than during previous cycles. That structure can limit explosive rallies, but also reduce the risk of total collapse.
The data suggest a clear trend. Even in a year marked by sharp corrections and unfulfilled expectations, the bitcoin price’s long-term bottom will rise.
The Bitcoin price is trading at $90,321, up 3% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap of $1.81 trillion and a 24-hour volume of $46 billion. Its price is close to its 7-day high of $90,789 and 3% above its 7-day low of $87,967, with 19.97 million BTC in circulation out of a 21 million max supply.