Our football betting expert Jones Knows gives his insight into the entire Premier League weekend and tips Manchester City to win an exciting Manchester derby.
Manchester United vs Manchester City, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Pep Guardiola enjoys playing with his shiny new toy.
Antonie Semenyo has hit the ground running at Manchester City and his goalscoring angle for this Manchester derby on 15/8 with Sky Bet really appeals.
What really stood out in the win at Newcastle was how different Semenyo makes this Manchester City attack look. City have brilliance, control and structure coming out of their ears, but what they don’t always have is raw, aggressive directness. Semenyo brings it in buckets.
Defenders are obsessed with Erling Haaland – that will only help Semenyo. It creates pockets of space and Semenyo is smart enough and aggressive enough to exploit them. Whether he’s starting far left, drifting from the inside right or juggling around Haaland, he’s constantly sniffing for danger instead of waiting for it.
And whatever the reason, it looks like a place is opening up for him against Manchester United and he’s reveling in it. Semenyo has scored in his last three appearances against United, including the maddening 4-4 ​​draw at Old Trafford earlier this season.
Score Prediction: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST EFFORT: Antonie Semenyo scores (15/8 with Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Brentford, Saturday at – PLAY SUPER 6!
Brentford rocking up at Stamford Bridge no longer feels like a mismatch – in fact, it’s becoming a fixture they’re quietly looking forward to. They have lost just once in their last eight visits to west London and that tells you everything about the mentality of this team. There is no fear.
And right now they are absolutely humming.
Brentford are in the midst of their best Premier League unbeaten run of the season – six games without defeat, winning four of their last five. And since December 14, no Premier League team has picked up more points than the Bees (14). They are 11/10 with Sky Bet on the double chance.
Score prediction: 1-1
Leeds vs Fulham, Saturday at
Leeds are a great watch and their games are quite chaotic by design. They play on the edge, get in your face and they ask questions of the opposition, but they also invite pressure. Across their last 18 matches, their matches have averaged 3.5 goals and they have kept just one clean sheet in that period.
Fulham arrive as the perfect dance partner to score goals with over 2.5 looks very generous at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
They have scored in their last 12 games across all competitions, showing a level of attacking consistency that travels well. Marco Silva’s side don’t need huge dominance to find the net either – they are sharp in transition, clever in the half-spaces and dangerous from wide areas.
Score prediction: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool v Burnley, Saturday at – PLAY SUPER 6!
Arne Slot’s Liverpool are starting to look like a serious team again.
The big change has come in their structure in defence. Castle have clearly prioritized control without the ball, giving Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate proper protection in front of them rather than leaving them exposed, which in turn has removed the silly mistakes that cost them goals.
Over the course of their last eight matches, Liverpool have conceded just five goals. It’s not smoke and mirrors either. The expected goals against data support it nicely with 0.8 per 90, which points to a side limiting quality chances rather than relying on last-ditch defense or goalkeeping heroics.
When you combine Liverpool’s improved defensive process with Burnley’s limited attacking threat, Liverpool to win nil shapes up as a smart bet at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-0
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace, Saturday at – PLAY SUPER 6!
Crystal Palace arrive on the back of a damaging FA Cup exit, knocked out in the third round by non-league Macclesfield. The instinctive reaction is to expect a violent reaction. But history strongly pushes back against that idea.
Looking at the last 13 Premier League teams dumped out by League One opponents or below in that time, the record for the next game sounds poor: three wins, four draws and six defeats. And even those three wins were by the bare minimum – a one-goal margin. There is no evidence of a rebound increase. If anything, the hangover lingers.
Sunderland remain unbeaten at home this season – a run built on energy, structure and a crowd that makes the Stadium of Light a very unpleasant place to visit. They see a fantastic draw no bet price at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-0
Tottenham vs West Ham, Saturday at
Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville are livewires for West Ham. Stop them and you pretty much stop West Ham.
The problem for the visitors is that they run into a Tottenham team specifically designed to take that weapon away.
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Speaking on the Transfer Talk Podcast, The Athletic’s Dan Kilpatrick explains why, while Conor Gallagher is a good option for Tottenham Hotspur, it raises questions about the squad Thomas Frank is building.
One of the defining features of Thomas Frank’s Spurs is how well they handle moments of transition. They don’t allow games to get stretched, they recover their form quickly and they stifle counter-attacks before they ever get going. This is supported by the numbers.
Across the season, Spurs have conceded the second fewest fast breaks in the league (11) – and crucially, they have not conceded a single goal from a fast break.
There is also a very strong angle under Frank in that nine of his 10 wins as Spurs boss have been clean sheets. When Tottenham win, they don’t just win, they close the door. It’s 2/1 with Sky Bet to land again.
Score prediction: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Gabriel Magalhaes is quietly becoming a magnet for mistakes. Not because he is theatrical, but because of how Arsenal use him. He enters aggressively in the build-up, carries the ball forward under pressure and is constantly involved in physical duels at set-pieces. That combination naturally invites contact, and referees have been happy to whistle.
The latest figures underline this trend. Gabriel has been fouled at least once in nine of his last 10 starts, averaging 1.53 draws per game. 90. That’s a healthy baseline for a centre-back and puts the 2+ fouls within reach in the right type of game at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Here he meets Igor Jesus.
The Forest striker is aggressive, raw and still learning when to step in and when to back off. He has committed 22 errors in his recent matches.
Score prediction: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Gabriel is booked +2 times (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Wolves vs Newcastle, Sunday at 14.00, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Wolves have quietly become a very difficult team to score against. The glaring trend in their recent performances is defensive improvement, and it’s backed by serious underlying numbers.
Across their last six games, only Arsenal can better Wolves’ expected goals against process at 0.99 per game. 90. It is elite territory. Wolves have faced Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United in that period. So while the sample size is small, the quality of the opposition gives these numbers real credibility.
We know Newcastle are a very different proposition away from St James’ Park – and it’s the attacking drop-off that is most striking. In their last 17 Premier League away games, they have scored more than 1.5 goals just three times.
On average, Newcastle manage just 1.2 goals per game. away game in that run and struggle to create sustained pressure or quality chances on their travels. The 6/5 with Sky Bet on them scoring under 1.5 goals again away looks to be a winner in the making.
Score prediction: 2-1
Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
David Moyes’ away record against top level opposition is appalling.
Going all the way back to his West Ham days, his away record at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City stands at 20 defeats from 21 games. It’s a brutal return.
These games also tend to follow the same script: sit deep, limit damage, slow the tempo and hope to stay in the contest as long as possible. Now, this game doesn’t technically fall into that bracket – but at what point do we start calling Aston Villa an elite home team?
Villa Park has become a fortress. They have won their last 11 home games, a run that includes statement wins over Arsenal and Manchester City. The intensity, structure and belief Unai Emery has created there is right up there with the very best in the league.
However, Moyes’ away games are rarely chaotic. Since returning to Everton, only two of his 20 away games have gone over 3.5 goals, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. 90. Therefore, it makes sense to combine a Villa win and under 3.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-0
Brighton vs Bournemouth, Monday at 20.00, live on Sky Sports
Bournemouth’s away games this season are wild. They score an average of 4.8 goals per game. away game. No, not a typo. Yes, almost five goals per match.
However, the markets are fully geared for goals in this one, which naturally pushes us towards the goalscorer angle at any time.
And who better to target than Kaoru Mitoma? The Japanese winger is starting to look like his old sparkling, nightmare-for-defensive self. His movement, breaking in behind and instinct for goal are all back in evidence – as evidenced by his goal against Manchester City.
History gives us even more confidence. Mitoma has scored five goals in his last six games against Bournemouth – that bit of psychological advantage over the opposition is not factored into the 5/2 prices at Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BET: Karou Mitoma scores (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bet…
- 1pt double on Antonie Semenyo & Karou Mitoma both to score (9/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1 point double over 2.5 goals in Leeds vs Fulham & Aston Villa to win and under 3.5 goals (7/2 with Sky Bet)
- 1 point on Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1 point on Gabriel to win +2 faults (11/4 with Sky Bet)