Well, the bulls’ hopes and dreams have been dashed this week after Bitcoin closed the week at $94,290, below the key weekly support level of $96,000. In the coming weeks, we must expect more bearish price action as key support levels have been lost. Refutations may occur, but are unlikely to result in any meaningful price levels being regained.
Important support and resistance levels now
Bitcoin price closed below the $96,000 support level identified in this article in the previous weeks. Closing near the lows below this level gives very little chance, if any, for price to recover and resume a bull market anytime soon. Looking lower, we have our next major support level below the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement from the 2022 low to the October 2025 high, and another high volume node sitting in the $83,000 to $84,000 area. Below here we will look at the highs in the 2024 consolidation zone between $69,000 and $72,000.
Resistance above $94,000 is thick now. With the price closing this low, we shouldn’t expect much of a bounce at this level, if any. If the price sees any kind of rejection this week, we will look at the $98,000 level as resistance. A short squeeze might push the price past here to $101,000. Above this level we have what amounts to a brick wall in the $106,000 to $109,000 zone. Behind the wall is $114,000 as significant resistance and $116,000 as a final reinforcement for the bears. If the price closes above $116,000, if bulls can hit all the way up there, we need to re-evaluate the market structure as it could turn bullish up there.
Outlook for this week
Do you believe in miracles? You will need to know if you expect the bitcoin price to see any kind of meaningful rally this week. There is a little bit of hopium for the bulls because the extended wedge pattern has not definitively broken bearish. If we stretch it as low as it can go (adjusted from previous weeks), the price is barely supported at the bottom at current lows. However, it is a tall order for bulls to make meaningful gains with all the resistance levels outlined above. The best bulls can expect is a jump to $106,000, with the price likely to roll over to new lows anywhere south of there. More likely the expansion wedge will break down at some point this week as bears are clearly in full control.
Market Sentiment: Extremely bearish – The bulls are down and out. Valued at around $94,000, bitcoin is down over 25% from its October highs. Little hope remains for any meaningful rally or new highs after the loss of major support levels.
The next few weeks
Examining all angles of the 4-year bitcoin cycle theory, the high has most likely already occurred. The timing for this was expected to take place sometime between September and December 2025, but with the price so low and so much resistance overhead, it is highly unlikely that any kind of rally will sustain enough strength to take the price to new highs before the end of this year. Is the 4 year cycle over? Well, apparently not, as the price spiked in early October and has essentially gone straight down from there. Could we see a late 4-year cycle high in Q1 2026? Well, yes, it’s possible, but still highly unlikely given bitcoin’s lack of strength in recent weeks while the stock market has remained strong. As the traditional stock market appears to have a bearish outlook for the foreseeable future, bitcoin is unlikely to see any meaningful rally during this period as well.
Terminology guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expect the price to be higher.
Bearish: Sellers or investors expect the price to fall.
Support or level of support: A level where the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more support, the weaker it becomes and the more likely it is not to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it becomes and the more likely it is not to hold the price back.
Fibonacci retracements and extensions: Ratio based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio regarding growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).
Volume profile: An indicator that shows the total amount of buying and selling at certain price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level where the highest volume of transactions took place.
Expansion of wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trendline that acts as resistance and a lower trendline that acts as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of increasing price volatility, which typically results in higher highs and lower lows.