Bitcoin price fell to $88,000 on Friday, down over 4% over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency is trading near its seven-day low of $88,091 and about 4% below its seven-day high of $92,805.
The global market cap for Bitcoin now stands at $1.77 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $48 billion.
Despite the recent drop, Wall Street bank JPMorgan remains bullish on the long-term Bitcoin price. The bank continues to maintain its gold-linked volatility-adjusted BTC target of $170,000 over the next six to twelve months.
Analysts say the model accounts for fluctuations in price and mining costs.
A key player in the market is Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate Bitcoin holder. The company owns 650,000 BTC. Its enterprise value-to-Bitcoin holdings ratio, known as mNAV, currently stands at 1.13.
JPMorgan analysts describe this as “encouraging.” A ratio above 1.0 indicates that Strategi is unlikely to face a forced sale of its Bitcoin.
Strategy has also built up a reserve of US$1.44 billion. The reserve is designed to cover dividend payments and interest obligations for at least 12 months. The company aims to extend coverage to 24 months.
Bitcoin mining pressure
Mining pressure continues to weigh on Bitcoin. The network’s hashrate and mining have decreased. High-cost miners outside of China are pulling back due to rising electricity costs and falling prices. Some miners have sold Bitcoin to stay solvent.
JPMorgan now estimates Bitcoin’s production cost at $90,000, down from $94,000 last month. Falling hashrates may push production costs lower, but the short-term effect is continued selling pressure from miners.
Institutional investors are also showing caution. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, has recorded six consecutive weeks of net outflows. Investors pulled more than $2.8 billion from the ETF during that period, according to Bloomberg.
The pullbacks highlight subdued appetite among traditional investors even as Bitcoin prices stabilize. Analysts note that the trend marks a reversal from the sustained approach seen earlier this year.
The broader market is still recovering from the October 10 liquidation. That crash wiped out over $1 trillion in crypto market capitalization and pushed Bitcoin into a bear market.
Although the Bitcoin price has regained some ground this week, momentum remains fragile.
JPMorgan analysts now say Bitcoin’s next big move depends less on the behavior of miners. Instead, it depends on the Strategy’s ability to hold its Bitcoin without selling. The mNAV ratio and reserve fund provide confidence that the company can withstand market volatility.
Other potential catalysts remain. The MSCI index decision on January 15 could affect Strategy’s stock and, indirectly, Bitcoin. Analysts say a positive result could trigger a strong rally.
Last week, Strategy’s Michael Saylor disputed MSCI index disputes, clarifying that Strategy is a publicly traded operating company with a $500 million software business and a financial strategy that uses Bitcoin, not a fund, trust or holding company.
He highlighted the firm’s recent activity, including five digital credit security offerings totaling over $7.7 billion in notional value.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin Magazine analysts believe that the bitcoin price correlation with gold has recently strengthened mainly during market downturns, giving a clearer view of its purchasing power when analyzed against gold instead of the USD.
Breaking below the 350-day moving average (~$100,000) and the $100,000 psychological level signaled Bitcoin’s entry into a bear market, falling roughly 20% immediately.
While USD charts show a peak in 2025, Bitcoin measured in gold peaked in December 2024 and has fallen over 50%, suggesting an extended bear phase.
Historical gold-based bear cycles indicate potential support zones are approaching, with current declines of 51% over 350 days, reflecting institutional adoption and limited supply rather than cycle reversals.
Currently, the bitcoin price is hovering near $88,000.