Lando Norris is favorite to win his first Formula 1 world title, but Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri could steal the championship at Sunday’s season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, so how can all three drivers do it?
F1 Drivers’ Championship
After the strategy drama in Qatar, Norris is 12 points ahead of Verstappen and 16 points ahead of McLaren teammate Piastri with 25 points for a win in Sunday’s race at the Yas Marina Circuit.
Verstappen will start the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on pole from Norris in second and Piastri in third.
How Norris can win the title
For Norris, the equation is simple – if he is on the podium in Abu Dhabi, he is world champion, regardless of what his title rivals do.
Should the British driver finish fourth, as he did in Qatar, he would need Verstappen not to win the race.
If Norris retires, or fails to score any points, he will need Verstappen outside the podium places and Piastri third or lower.
How Verstappen can win the title
Verstappen needs to be on the podium to have any chance of winning a record-equalling fifth consecutive drivers’ title – a distinction held by Michael Schumacher during his time at Ferrari.
The Dutchman, who won a controversial 2021 title decider against Lewis Hamilton, realistically needs to win and hopes Norris is not on the podium.
How Piastri can win the title
Piastri must finish in the top two to have any chance of winning a first world title. Even with the win, however, he needs teammate Norris to finish sixth or lower.
Should Piastri finish second, the Australian would rely on Norris finishing 10th or lower, plus Verstappen not being on the podium.
What happens if the top two are tied on points?
This can of course happen. For example, if Piastri does not win, Verstappen will finish second and Norris is seventh – the latter two would be tied on 414 points.
We would then go to countback, meaning who has the most wins in 2025. Remarkably, Norris, Verstappen and Piastri all have seven wins this season.
That means we then look at second places and Norris leads here with eight second places compared to Verstappen on six (including the one in Abu Dhabi in this scenario) while Piastri has four.
In any scenario where Norris is tied with his title rivals, he will come out on top.
It is impossible for Verstappen and Piastri to be equal on points if they are the two best in the championship.
How many times has the championship leader not won?
This will be the 32nd time the F1 Drivers’ Championship has gone down to the final race in the sport’s 75-year history.
However, only nine of those times have seen the championship leader go into that race and not win the title – Sebastian Vettel in 2010 being the last driver to do so when he overturned a 15-point deficit to Fernando Alonso when he was also third.
When will the championship trophy be awarded?
The Drivers’ Championship is actually awarded at the FIA ​​Prize Gala, rather than the season finale in Abu Dhabi. This is also the case with the Constructors’ Championship, which was won by McLaren at October’s Singapore Grand Prix.
This year’s FIA Prize Gala will take place in Tashkent, Uzbekistan on December 12.
Max Verstappen with the Drivers’ Championship trophy in 2024
The 2025 Formula 1 season concludes with the title-deciding Abu Dhabi Grand Prix live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – no contract, cancel anytime