Our football betting expert Jones Knows gives his insight into the midweek card of Premier League fixtures.
Chelsea vs Leeds, Tuesday 7.30pm
One of my favorite angles this season is the centre-forwards fouling the centre-backs.
This season’s Premier League is a strange product to watch. The data and the eye test tell the same story, with the league tilting back toward directness with far more emphasis on winning first contact. And when that happens, centre-forwards don’t just score goals, they start making mistakes.
The result? Central defenders are committed more often than the market expects.
Joao Pedro has come to life under Liam Rosenior, putting in some electric performances as the central striker, making a healthy number of mistakes as well. In six starts as center forward under the new boss. he has made eight mistakes. Joe Rodon is in the firing line when it comes to wrong draws, where he is a hefty 4/1 with Sky Bet to be persuaded +2 times.
Score prediction: 2-1
Everton vs Bournemouth, Tuesday 7.30pm
Everton midfielder James Garner looks a strong bet to hit the +2 foul in this one at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Garner has hit that mark in 10 of his 20 starts in central midfield this season, showing he’s no stranger to getting his foot in at key moments.
Bournemouth’s Alex Scott, meanwhile, has been a magnet for fouls, hauling in 14 in his last eight games. The battle between Garner and Scott in the middle of the park should see the Everton man make a few challenges as he tries to disrupt Scott’s rhythm.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST EFFORTS: James Garner +2 fouled (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham vs Newcastle, Tuesday 7.30pm
Just two wins in 16 Premier League games has left Tottenham just six points from safety and suddenly flirting with the drop.
Sky Bet doesn’t mess around either. Spurs are now just 10/1 to go down.
If they don’t find form quickly and West Ham keep winning, that relegation scrap could become very real. This is getting serious.
Spurs are easily edged out here at 19/10 with Sky Bet also having won one of their last 11 Premier League home games.
Meanwhile, when the chips are down, Eddie Howe usually delivers a result for Newcastle and he will use the frustration of the home fan base as a weapon in the hope that the north London faithful will turn against their team. A quick start is therefore expected, making the Newcastle/Newcastle half-time/full-time market at 5/2 with Sky Bet a smart way to boost the odds on an away win.
Score prediction: 1-2
West Ham vs Manchester United, Tuesday 20.15
One of the standout bets on the midweek card is Crysensio Summerville for a shot at the Evens with Sky Bet. The winger has been a thorn in Premier League defenses of late, registering nine shots on target in his last six games.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s tactical system clearly suits Summerville, giving him the freedom to drift into dangerous positions and create big moments. Against a Manchester United side that has shown vulnerability all over, you can expect Summerville to buzz for another attempt at goal.
Score prediction: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST EFFORT: Crysensio Summerville +1 shot on goal (Evens with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Brighton, Wednesday at 19.30
Brighton’s swings are a fantastic advantage to take advantage of. Just one win in 12 games isn’t a blemish, it’s a crisis – yet the markets still have them priced in as a dangerous outfit. Villa, notoriously ruthless and efficient at home, are offered on 10/11 with Sky Bet for maximum points. That looks generous based on what Brighton serves.
Fabian Hurzeler’s side is fighting for creativity and confidence. The end could be near for him as Brighton boss.
Score prediction: 2-0
Crystal Palace vs Burnley, Wednesday 7.30pm
Jørgen Strand Larsen played like a man with a big point to prove on his debut. It wasn’t always pretty or easy on the eye, but he made his presence felt in the 1-0 win over Brighton. Three fouls and a yellow card in his first appearance shows a striker visibly eager to impose himself and make a statement.
Strand Larsen averages around 1.9 mistakes per game in the Premier League. That’s potentially almost two yellow card-worthy moments every 90 minutes. He carries the aura of a striker who plays as if it is only a matter of time before he oversteps, mistimes a challenge or lashes out in frustration. As he did in Brighton when he stopped an attack with a cynical pull on his shirt.
Jørgen Strand Larsen will 19/2 card with Sky Bet
Strand Larsen is a striker – for sure – but a striker who is sensitive, eager to fight and clearly wants to make his mark. The odds are gigantic at 19/2 with Sky Bet for a card.
Score Prediction: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Jørgen Strand Larsen gets a card (19/2 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Fulham, Wednesday 7.30pm
This version of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City always gives you a chance. It is far from their controlled and possessive style.
Fulham, meanwhile, are not here to make up the numbers. Both teams to score have landed in 12 of their last 15 matches and they have managed the feat on their last four visits to the Etihad. It’s not luck, it’s a proven plan to be able to hit City on the counter, exploit mistakes and play with freedom.
City will score – of course they will – but Fulham are likely to join the party. Both teams to score look to be 4/5 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-1
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm
Morgan Gibbs-White and Wolves. Make no mistake, there is bad blood there.
Every touch will be scrutinized, every run will be mocked and if he gets on the scoresheet, emotions will explode.
Gibbs-White isn’t shy either. He is combative, fiery and at 10/1 with Sky Bet to score and pick up a card, the value is screaming. Picture the scene: A Gibbs-White goal sparks the celebrations in what has now become a very big game for Forest. The shirt may come off, triggering a reservation.
Combine the two through the Sky Bet BuildABet feature and 10/1 looks like a steal.
Score prediction: 2-1
Sunderland vs Liverpool, Wednesday 20.15
If you want a betting market that rewards understanding of football matches over predicting perfection, the ‘getting dirty’ market is as good as it gets.
Bookmaker’s prices are widely divergent from averages and historical data. What they struggle to fully account for is the role in a specific match-up. As a foul-heavy central defender playing up against a crafty central defender. That’s what we have here.
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Gary Neville felt VAR ‘didn’t need to intervene’ during the dramatic end to Liverpool’s defeat to Manchester City, which saw Rayan Cherkis’ goal disallowed and Dominik Szoboszlai shown a red card.
This is not about Van Dijk losing control or his cool. It rarely happens.
It’s about Van Dijk being drawn into a very specific type of duel against his opponent in Brian Bobbey, who is not a subtle centre-forward. His game is built on confrontation.
Last season in Ajax he averaged 1.8 infringements per game. 90, which is a huge figure for a striker operating in a possession-dominant side. Even more telling is the recent trend of nine fouls across his last six games in which he bullies big opponents. Van Dijk is 10/11 with Sky Bet to win +1 fouls.
Score prediction: 1-1
Brentford vs Arsenal, Thursday 20.15
Arsenal are scoring goals at a relentless rate, conceding here and there and making life very, very difficult for anyone trying to keep them quiet. It’s a perfect cocktail to back the line of over 2.5 goals when the odds are flirting around even money. Their last 13 games have averaged 3.4 goals per game. 90 minutes and 10 of those games have gone over 2.5 goals
Even without Brentford contributing, Arsenal alone could easily cover this line. They have scored three or more goals in 10 of their last 13 games. It’s a ruthless form of attack from a team that knows exactly how to punish mistakes.
Score Prediction: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (equal with Sky Bet)
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