Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, stated on Friday that the crypto market has seen its cycle low, with Bitcoin’s recent plunge to around $59,000 marking the bottom of the latest decline – a 53% pullback from its October all-time high of $126,000.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring,” Kendrick wrote in a Friday note, adding, “I think we’ve now seen the lows in crypto asset prices for the cycle.”
Bitcoin had recovered to around $64,000 at the time of Kendrick’s note, representing a gain of around 5% over the previous week. The bank maintains a $100,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of the year — projections it first issued in February.
SpaceX IPO drains crypto-liquidity – then frees it up
One of the two primary catalysts Kendrick cited is the historic Nasdaq debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which priced its $75 billion IPO at $135 per share. share under the ticker SPCX on June 12.
Shares opened significantly above their IPO price, rising about 20% on their debut day. Kendrick argued that a significant portion of recent Bitcoin ETF outflows — totaling more than $5.72 billion since the second week of May, among the sharpest “since its inception” — were driven by investors liquidating crypto positions to secure SpaceX allocations. With the IPO now live, the specific selling pressure may lift, he said.
The overlap between crypto and SpaceX demand was already playing out in real time. On Hyperliquid, perpetual contracts for SpaceX (SPCX) had accumulated over $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour volume ahead of its debut — ranking it the eighth-largest asset on the platform.
Iran is a wild card
The second catalyst involves geopolitics. A potential US-Iran peace deal planned ahead of next week’s G7 summit could ease pressure on global oil supplies, which have been tight since hostilities in the Middle East began.
Lower oil prices would subsequently cool elevated US Treasuries – which have weighed on risk assets like crypto by making risk-free government debt more attractive.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 1.5% on Friday to around $85-$86 a barrel. However, the peace agreement narrative remained fragile.
President Trump said on Thursday that a breakthrough could come this weekend, only to later post on Truth Social that the deal that was made public was not what had been agreed and warned Iranian officials to “get their act together” – adding uncertainty to the macro outlook.
Three Bitcoin Price Signals to Watch
Kendrick outlined three confirmation signals that would validate his call. First, he watches for Strategy to announce an additional Bitcoin purchase on Monday, as CEO Michael Saylor’s buying history has served as a reliable demand signal for institutional appetite.
Second, he expects US spot Bitcoin ETFs to return to net positive daily inflows on Friday.
Third, he wants to see continued declines in global oil prices as Iran’s diplomatic situation evolves.
If all three come true, Kendrick’s crypto-spring thesis achieves its clearest validation yet — suggesting that institutional and macro forces are finally aligning to push Bitcoin back toward the bank’s $100,000 year-end target.