Bitcoin has started the fourth quarter of 2025 with a strong demonstration that waves more than 10% over the past week – from about $ 109,000 on September 27 to over $ 122,000 today.
But Bitcoin could wave to fresh heights all the time if the US government’s shutdown continues, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets on standard chartered.
Kendrick believes that Bitcoin’s historically positive connection with US Treasury Prizes, suggesting that cryptocurrency can benefit from long -term tax uncertainty.
Kendrick noted that under prolonged market stress – conditions that often favor digitally scarce assets – Bitcoin has historically shown remarkable resilience. In this case, the prolonged stress of the US government’s extended shutdown comes.
Standard Chartered’s forecast is now targeting Bitcoin for $ 135,000 in the short term, with an exit at the end of the year of $ 200,000, signaling strong confidence in token’s upside potential.
Currently, Bitcoin is about $ 122,200, just shy for its August-highest height of $ 124,480.
Bitcoin ready for a rally
The potential of an expanded US government closure adds another layer of market uncertainty, which often affects both shares and instruments with fixed income.
For Bitcoin, these conditions may serve as a catalyst, which strengthens its role as a hedge against traditional market volatility.
Bitcoin has traded sideways in recent months, but the most important liquidity indicators suggest a breakout may be near. Global M2 Growth, StableCecoin Supply Tenders and Gold’s Rally-As Bitcoin have carefully tracked with a 40-day delay-all pointing upwards.
JPMorgan -analysts also see Bitcoin as underestimated in relation to gold, which estimates a theoretical upside for $ 165,000 if “down -based trading” – invests in assets called Fiat Currency Risk – continues.
As September closes approx. 5% higher at $ 114,000, historical patterns suggest a strong potential for big winnings in the 4th quarter, supported by growing retail and institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs and custody.
Data shows that this year such as 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024 were positive September closures followed by competitions in the fourth quarter on average more than 50%.