Bitcoin price rose above $106,000 on Monday, regaining ground lost during a volatile weekend that saw a brief dip below $100,000 on Friday.
Despite bearish pressure from the beginning of the week, buyers stepped in repeatedly at key support levels. Bitcoin price rose 1% in 24 hours during the day.
Over the past week, the Bitcoin price flirted with the $100,000 threshold several times, falling slightly below on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. However, bulls quickly defended these levels and ensured that no daily close took place below $100,000.
The 55-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $99,000 repeatedly served as a reliable support floor, providing a strong foundation for the current rally.
Technical analysts are now pointing to $109,400 as the next Fibonacci resistance, with $111,000 serving as a more significant barrier if Bitcoin can maintain its momentum. Beyond these levels, $116,000 is considered a crucial threshold that could shift market sentiment sharply in favor of bulls.
Institutional activity played a significant role in the recent rally. Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, disclosed a $49.9 million purchase of 487 BTC last week, bringing its total holdings to 641,692 BTC, worth over $47.5 billion.
Funded through multiple preferred stock offerings, this purchase represents Strategy’s largest acquisition since September and underscores institutional players’ continued confidence in Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset.
Strategy’s innovative use of preferred stock series – including its STRC “Stretch” shares – demonstrates a sustainable and systematic approach to corporate Bitcoin accumulation, providing a blueprint for other companies entering the space.
Market sentiment has been further influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions. Rumors of a potential end to the US federal government shutdown have boosted investor confidence, suggesting that Nasdaq gains could translate into renewed buying pressure for Bitcoin.
However, analysts warn that any macroeconomic turbulence or prolonged government dysfunction could dampen momentum, potentially pushing the Bitcoin price towards lower support levels near $96,000 or even $93,000 in extreme scenarios.
Bitcoin price technical models
Data-driven models also indicate that Bitcoin price’s next bear market may be shallower than previous cycles. Metrics such as the MVRV ratio and rising production costs suggest structural support in the $55,000-$70,000 range, giving confidence that retracements may be less severe than in previous cycles. As cyclical patterns persist, institutional adoption and market maturity are gradually reshaping volatility dynamics.
Looking ahead, traders and investors will be watching key resistance levels closely. Short-term gains may encounter obstacles at $109,400 and $111,000, but a sustained push above $116,000 could unlock a broader bullish trend towards the top of the extended wedge pattern around $129,000.