Bitcoin’s latest onchain and derivatives data points to a constructive setup, with VanEck highlighting negative funding rates and a clustered hash rate drawdown, along with softer volatility and cautious positioning.
The firm notes in their latest report that realized volatility fell from around 56% to 41% as tensions between the US and Iran eased, while the average 7-day funding rate fell to around -1.8%, the lowest level since 2023 and in the 10th percentile of readings since late 2020.
Since 2020, bitcoin’s average 30-day return during periods of negative funding has been 11.5%, compared to 4.5% across all periods, with a 77% hit rate for positive performance. When funding year-over-year fell below -5%, trailing 30-day returns averaged 19.4% and 180-day returns reached 70%, making negative funding a recurring contrarian buy signal. VanEck also reports that 19 of the top 50 180-day return windows since 2020 began on negative funding days, despite such periods representing only about 13.6% of the sample.
Bitcoin hash rate is decreasing
On the mining side, the 30-day moving average hash rate has dropped to the 16th percentile over 30 days and the 9th percentile over 90 days, while the difficulties have dropped to the 5th and 6th percentiles on these horizons.
Three episodes of sustained hashrate declines have emerged since December 2025, the tightest cluster since China’s 2021 mining ban, with the most recent draw of around 6.7% ending on April 15, 2026. Across seven completed historical draws, bitcoin was higher 90 days later in six instances and up 3737% in the media. 180 days.
Derivatives and onchain activity reflect guarded sentiment rather than capitulation. Put premiums to spot volume are more than six times higher than April 2024 levels, while active supply over the past 180 days fell to 28.4%, signaling greater holder repose.
Long-tenured cohorts, particularly 7-10-year and 10+-year holders, increased used volume to the 85th and 90th percentiles in the past four years, but VanEck emphasizes that such moves do not always represent outright sales.
Taken together, the firm concludes that negative funding and hash rate stress form a reinforced bullish backdrop for bitcoin.
“Both mining interest drawdowns and negative funding rates have been associated with strong forward BTC returns. As such, we have become increasingly bullish on bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.
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