The bitcoin price fell to fresh six-month lows on Friday, decisively breaking below the psychological $100,000 mark and intensifying a selloff that has wiped out nearly a quarter of its value in just over a month.
By noon, the bitcoin price was trading between $94,000 and $97,000, its weakest level since early May and a steep drop from October’s $126,296 all-time high, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is at $94,850, but it bounced off $94,000 levels.
The drop caps a chaotic week across global markets, with risk assets, from tech giants to crypto stocks, falling amid collapsing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
Just two weeks ago, traders were pricing in an almost certain 97% chance of easing. Today, that probability has fallen to around 50%, triggering deleveraging across both stocks and digital assets.
Why is the Bitcoin price falling?
The macro presses are only part of the story. The Bitcoin price is facing internal market dynamics that have reinforced the decline. According to new data from CryptoQuant, long-term holders have sold an estimated 815,000 BTC in the past 30 days – the largest such exodus since early 2024.
Spot demand has weakened at the worst possible moment, and US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded hundreds of millions in daily outflows, draining liquidity while fueling downward momentum.
The turmoil extends beyond crypto. Risk-sensitive stocks — including Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, Coinbase and Bitcoin miners — were hammered in this week’s sessions as investors fled speculative assets.
Rising concerns over an AI bubble, combined with uncertainty surrounding delayed US economic data following the 43-day government shutdown, have pushed the VIX to its highest value since mid-October.
Institutional buying has fallen below the daily supply issued by miners, adding steady selling pressure at a time when liquidity is thinning.
Bitcoin price is teetering on difficult levels
Bitcoin price is now hovering near its closely watched 365-day moving average around $100,000, a level analysts say could determine whether the current pullback turns into a sharper correction, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Researchers at Bitfinex noted Bitcoin Magazine that the decline from the October high tracks closely with typical mid-cycle retracements, matching the roughly 22% pullbacks seen throughout the 2023-2025 bull market.
Despite falling below a $100,000 bitcoin price, they estimate that around 72% of all circulating bitcoin remains in profit – an indication that long-term owners are still sitting on gains even as sentiment weakens.
Other analysts see signs that the market may be nearing a bottom. JPMorgan estimates that bitcoin’s current production costs – driven higher by increasing network difficulties – are around $94,000, a level that has historically acted as a strong downside anchor.
With the price now approaching this threshold, the bank claims bitcoin’s price-to-cost ratio is back near historic lows and maintains a bullish 6-12 month outlook targeting around $170,000.
Yet the forces shaping this correction are far greater than retail traders. Whales, institutions and leveraged market structures now dictate most major actions. Single transfers from wallets with thousands of BTC can change sentiment across exchanges.
But bitcoin’s latest wave of whale selling is not a sign of panic, but typical late-cycle behavior, according to Glassnode.
Glassnode says long-term owners are steadily realizing profits, with monthly expenses rising from 12,000 BTC per day in July to around 26,000 — consistent with normal bull market distribution rather than an “OG whale exodus.”
The wider background doesn’t help. The US government has reopened after a record 43-day shutdown, the longest in US history, following President Trump’s approval late Wednesday of a temporary funding measure.
Under the bill, federal agencies are only funded until Jan. 30, meaning uncertainty will continue to hang over markets even as operations slowly resume.
At press time, the bitcoin price is trading at $95,670, hovering near production cost levels and testing key technical support.