On Thursday, at the end of Coinbase’s third quarter earnings call, CEO Brian Armstrong admitted he was “a little bit distracted” because he had been “tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call.”
“And I just want to add the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, Blockchain, Staking and Web3 here to make sure we get them in before the end of the call,” Armstrong added.
Why blur them out without any apparent connection? As Armstrong hinted, those were the words that users on “mention markets” on Kalshi and Polymarket had been betting would be said during the call. So by saying the words, Armstrong let some of those bets pay off.
Bloomberg reports that while mention markets remain a relatively niche part of prediction markets, a total of $84,000 was bet on whether certain words would be said on the cryptocurrency company’s call. And while Armstrong may have helped some Kalshi and Polymarket users make a little money, he also illustrated how easily these markets can be manipulated when managers become aware of them.
Indeed, Jeff Dorman, CIO of digital asset investment firm Arca, wrote on X that “you need to get your head examined if you think it’s cute or clever or savvy that the CEO of the biggest company in this industry blatantly manipulated a market.”
“It’s no fun working tirelessly for 8 years trying to educate institutional investors on the value of crypto investing as an investable asset class and working to help them get comfortable in this industry while one of the supposed ‘leaders’ openly mocks the industry with crap like this,” Dorman said.
Polymarket, meanwhile, wrote that Armstrong’s comments were “diabolical work.”
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Coinbase is moving into supporting prediction markets itself through its Everything Exchange, which Armstrong touted on the earnings call, and the company has also invested in Kalshi and Polymarket. A Coinbase spokesperson told Bloomberg that the company prohibits employees from participating in prediction markets or related activity around the company.
After Armstrong’s remarks began to attract attention, he wrote on X, “lol this was funny – happened spontaneously when someone on our team dropped a link in chat.”