It has been a turbulent and volatile fourth quarter for Bitcoin in 2025. BTC has experienced a turbulent December, with prices falling nearly 9% and volatility rising to levels not seen since April 2025.
In its latest “ChainCheck” report from mid-December, VanEck’s digital asset analysts painted a nuanced picture: While on-chain activity remains weak, liquidity conditions are improving and speculative leverage appears to be zeroing out, providing cautious optimism for long-term owners.
The firm highlighted the conflicting behavior between different investor groups. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have been actively buying the drop, accumulating 42,000 BTC – their biggest addition since July – bringing the total holdings over one million BTC.
This contrasts with Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) investors, who have reduced exposure, underscoring a shift towards corporate accumulation over retail-led speculation.
Analysts at VanEck noted that some DATs are exploring alternative financing methods, including issuing preferred stock over common stock, to fund acquisitions and operations, reflecting a more strategic, long-term approach.
Onchain data also revealed a divergence between holders in the medium and long term. Tokens held for one to five years have seen significant movements, suggesting profit-taking or portfolio rotation, while coins held for more than five years remain largely untouched.
VanEck interprets this as a signal that cyclical or short-term participants are offloading assets, while the oldest cohorts maintain belief in Bitcoin’s future.
Bitcoin miners are facing a declining hash rate
Miners, meanwhile, have faced a particularly challenging environment. Network hash rates fell 4% in December, VanEck says — the sharpest decline since April 2024 — as high-capacity operations in regions like Xinjiang cut production under regulatory pressure. Breakeven electricity costs for large mining rigs have also fallen, reflecting tighter profit margins.
Historically, however, VanEck notes that declining hash rates can serve as a bullish contrarian indicator: periods of declining network power have often been preceded by positive 90- to 180-day forward returns.
The VanEck team frames its analysis within the GEO (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity) framework, designed to assess Bitcoin’s structural health beyond daily price fluctuations.
Under this lens, improved liquidity and accumulation of DATs provide a counterbalance to softer on-chain metrics, including stagnant new addresses and declining transaction fees.
Broader macro trends add complexity to Bitcoin’s outlook. The US dollar has weakened to near three-month lows, boosting precious metals, but Bitcoin and other crypto assets remain under pressure.
Alongside this, the developing financial ecosystem can offer new support. Market observers point to the rise of “alt exchanges,” platforms that aim to integrate stock, crypto and prediction markets by leveraging AI-powered trading and settlement systems.
Last week, Coinbase made an ‘everything exchange’-like move, launching an expansion of its platform that introduced stock trading, prediction markets, futures and other features. Companies entering this space — ranging from traditional brokerages to crypto-native firms — are vying for market share, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s liquidity and utility over time, VanEck says.
Bitcoin price volatility
Despite this, volatility remains a defining feature. While Bitcoin has doubled in value over the past two years and nearly tripled over three, the absence of extreme blow-off peaks or pullouts has dampened expectations. Future bitcoin movements may be more measured, with medium-term investors likely to see less cyclical highs and lows rather than the dramatic swings of previous cycles.
VanEck said the broader market is in correction. Short- to medium-term speculative activity is receding, long-term ownership is holding steady, and institutional accumulation is increasing. Combined with signs of miner capitulation, subdued volatility and macroeconomic dynamism, the company frames the current environment as one of structural recalibration.
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin may be in a period of consolidation that reflects broader market maturation, VanEck said. This could result in some strong positive price movements in the first quarter of next year.