Bitcoin price looks bad but I’m buying. The price can go lower, it always can, but there is value at these levels and I am accumulating. I think it’s important to be honest about how I actually act on the analysis I publish, rather than just presenting data from afar. And right now, the data is saying something that has only been said a handful of times in the entire history of Bitcoin.
Let’s get to the point:
- The Crosby Ratio Z-score has one of the lowest readings in history.
- The RSI is at a level we have only encountered a handful of times during extreme lows in the market.
- Bitcoin has rejected the 200-week moving average.
- The SOPR is in the bottom fifth percentile of all historical readings.
- The Mayer Multiple is also in its bottom fifth percentile.
The Crosby Ratio
The Crosby Ratio Z-score measures bitcoin’s price momentum and standardizes it for Bitcoin’s evolving volatility. It is not a fixed threshold as it adjusts as the market matures and volatility compresses, making it applicable across all stages of Bitcoin’s history. The current reading is around -1.7. This means that 99.8% of all days in Bitcoin’s history have recorded a less extreme reading on this indicator.
Figure 1: The Crosby Ratio Z-Score just dropped to one of its lowest values ever.
The list of instances where this reading has been this low: the recent drop to $60,000, the first break below $20,000 in 2022, the March 2020 COVID crash, and the 2018 bear market lows. That’s it. Four apartments in over ten years of price history. Each one of them turned out to be a significant accumulation opportunity.
RSI
The Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely used momentum indicators across all markets. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is currently at one of its all-time lows. The previous instances of such low readings were the bear market low of 2015, the bear market low of 2018, the COVID crash and the recent drop to $60,000.
Figure 2: Relative Strength Index can be compared to historical lows.
Two independent momentum indicators, measured quite differently, but producing the same short list of historical comparisons. This kind of confluence across methods is not something to reject.
200-week moving average
The 200-week moving average has served as bear market support throughout Bitcoin’s history. The only meaningful exception was the FTX collapse in late 2022, which caused a brief but sharp deficit before a rapid recovery. Outside of that event, this level has held as a floor every single cycle.
Figure 3: Bitcoin is currently sitting just above its 200WMA.
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Bitcoin has just bounced off that level again. Directly below current prices lie recent cycle lows, creating the structure for a potential double bottom, one of the more reliable technical formations across any market. The 200-week moving average and Bitcoin Realized Price are converging in roughly the same zone, adding further weight to this level as meaningful structural support.
SOPR & The Mayer Multiple
The profit ratio for output used is currently in the bottom fifth percentile of all historical readings. This means that the rate of realized losses across the Bitcoin network, the rate at which holders are selling at a loss, is in the deepest 5% of anything we’ve ever recorded. The sales that have driven this move have been predominantly short-term; value days destroyed data confirms that long-term owners have largely not participated in this liquidation. It is short-term traders and leveraged positions that are cleared out, not the convicts who capitulate.
Figure 4: The profit ratio for used output illustrates the severity of recent losses.
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The Mayer Multiple, which measures bitcoin’s price against its 200-day moving average, is also in its own bottom fifth percentile. When these two indicators have historically been at their lower extremes at the same time, the resulting accumulation opportunities have been exceptional. This has only happened a handful of times, and each instance has been followed by a significant price increase.
Figure 5: The Mayer Multiple has reached levels similar to previous bear cycle lows.
To sum it up
I must be honest, the strength of the fall surprised me. I expected a pullback from the $80,000 resistance zone, but the move through $70,000 was sharper than expected. What has not surprised me is the data that has emerged as a result, because this kind of confluence between technical, on-chain and momentum indicators has appeared before and the market has consistently rewarded accumulation at these readings.
Can we go lower? Yes. The realized price is not far below current levels and represents the next meaningful support zone if the low is seen again. I am prepared for that scenario. But stripping away all emotion and looking only at what the data says, five independent signals simultaneously in generational territory, this is not the time to wait on the sidelines for a marginally better price.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.