Bitcoin price has extended its losses, falling to a low of $105,200 today, after a shaky start to November and ending a remarkable seven-year “Uptober” streak.
After closing October down 4% – the first negative October since 2018 – Bitcoin price is facing increased selling pressure amid tighter financial conditions, cautious institutional flows and macroeconomic headwinds.
The recent correction follows a lightning crash in early October that dragged Bitcoin down to $104,000, wiping out much of its momentum in the third quarter. Despite a partial recovery, BTC remains about 14% below its recent peak near $125,000.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is at $106,234.
Bitcoin price analysis
Technical charts reveal that Bitcoin recently tested three support lows before sweeping liquidity below them.
On the daily time frame, BTC held a low in a demand area that has historically been a strong support level. This zone previously caught impatient sellers before a bounce, suggesting that BTC may once again find short-term support here.
Zooming in on the 15-minute chart, a clean demand zone is forming where Bitcoin could react before making its next directional move, potentially targeting liquidity above current highs. Traders familiar with such setups note that markets often prepare for moves that leave panicked participants.
On-chain data provides additional insight into Bitcoin’s current position. The short-term holder (STH) realized price, which represents the average cost basis for recent buyers, is around $113,000.
Historically, this level has acted as a dynamic support zone, providing a basis for accumulation and future upward movements.
Staying above this line signals that short-term participants are at breakeven or a small profit, strengthening market confidence.
The STH market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio also highlights potential upside. Multiplying the current STH realized price by historical MVRV thresholds projects resistance levels between $160,000 and $200,000, which is consistent with previous cycle patterns.
Long-Term Owners (LTH) MVRV metrics reinforce this outlook, suggesting diminishing returns but potential tops around $163,000-$165,000.
Rolling MVRV frames, including two-year and 100-day analyses, indicate that BTC is still in an accumulation-friendly range, capturing optimal points to enter the market ahead of the next bullish phase.
Bitcoin to $200,000 Soon?
Earlier today, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee remained bullish on Bitcoin, predicting that it could still rise to $150,000-$200,000 by the end of 2025 despite recent market turbulence.
He noted that the liquidation event in mid-October – the largest in crypto history, even bigger than FTX – happened just weeks ago.
Earlier today, Strategy announced that it reinforced its aggressive approach to Bitcoin accumulation by buying 397 BTC for about $45.6 million at an average price of $114,771 per share. BTC.
According to a November 3, 2025 SEC Form 8-K filing, Strategy now has a total of 641,205 BTC with a total purchase price of $47.49 billion and an average price of $74,057 per share. BTC, including fees and expenses.