The bitcoin price could rise to $143,000 next year as continued adoption by exchange-traded funds and a more accommodating US regulatory backdrop draw new capital into the market, according to a new forecast from Citi.
Analysts at the Wall Street bank set $143,000 as their base-case target for the bitcoin price over the next 12 months. They outlined a bullish scenario that puts the price above $189,000, while their bearish case sees the bitcoin price falling to around $78,500 if macroeconomic conditions worsen, according to MarketWatch reporting.
The Bitcoin price was trading near $88,000 on Friday, down about 30% from its peak in late October. The pullback followed a sharp wave of selling following the rally earlier this year, although Citi noted that outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have moderated in recent weeks.
“Our forecasts, particularly for bitcoin, rest on an assumption that investor adoption continues to flow into $15 billion ETFs, boosting token prices,” the analysts wrote. The note was led by Alex Saunders, Citi’s head of global quantitative macro strategy.
Citi also pointed to potential regulatory clarity in the US as a key driver of future demand. The US Senate is negotiating its own version of the House-passed Clarity Act, legislation that would place bitcoin under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The analysts said clearer rules could encourage broader institutional participation.
The bank’s bearish scenario assumes recessionary pressure and weaker appetite for risk assets. Bitcoin price fell to multi-month lows in November as concerns over high-tech valuations and broader macro risks weighed on markets.
The cryptocurrency shed more than $18,000 that month, marking its biggest dollar drop since May 2021 amid sharp investor pullbacks.
Banks embrace bitcoin
Two weeks ago, Bank of America told its wealth management clients to allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to digital assets, signaling a major shift in its approach to Bitcoin exposure.
The move allowed over 15,000 advisors across Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank and Merrill Edge to proactively recommend crypto to clients.
Last week, PNC Bank launched direct spot bitcoin trading for qualified Private Bank customers, allowing them to buy, hold and sell bitcoin natively through its own digital banking platform without using an external exchange. The move was powered by Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service infrastructure.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin’s recent selloff underscores a market stuck in consolidation where positive macro catalysts fail to translate into sustained upside.
After briefly testing $89,000 on cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data, bitcoin slipped back toward the $84,000 range, extending a correction that is now entering its second month. The pattern has become familiar: sharp, data-driven rallies followed by quick retracements as sellers defend resistance below $90,000.
Macro signals offer mixed support. November CPI fell to 2.7% year-over-year, with core inflation at 2.6%, strengthening the case for possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. That backdrop helped spark the intraday rally. Still, rising U.S. unemployment and uneven job growth complicate the outlook, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will move cautiously. Markets appear reluctant to price in aggressive easing.
A key feature remains US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have shifted from consistent inflows to net redemptions. The outflows remove a stabilizing bid that previously absorbed selling pressure, making breakouts harder to sustain even on positive news.
Technically, bitcoin price is range. Resistance is just below $90,000, while support near $84,000 is weakening. A decisive break could open a move towards the $72,000-$68,000 zone, where analysts expect stronger demand.
Extreme fear readings suggest potential undervaluation, but near-term momentum still favors sellers.
At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is dancing around the $88,000 level.