Bitcoin Price Weekly Outlook
Bitcoin closed out the week at $67,638, not an awe-inspiring finish by any means. The $65,650 support level has held for a few weeks now, but the relentless selling pressure is likely to remove it this week. At the time of writing on Sunday evening, the bitcoin price is currently trading below this support level at $64,600. We should expect price action to remain bearish this week and likely threaten to clear the $60,000 low.
Important support and resistance levels now
There is still a chance that the $65,600 support level could hold if the price manages to close back above it, but that would be highly unlikely at this point. $63,000 would be the last line of defense for the bulls to avoid making new lows here. There is a possibility that $57,800 could hold the weekly close and provide a reversal, but I would not be surprised if the price moves well below this level first, down to $53,000. Closing a week below $57,800 opens the $42,000 to $44,000 support zone, which should be a good area for long-term support and a potential reversal in price.
It almost feels like there is no point in giving resistance levels this week with how bearish the price action has been. The price has tried to hold on to this critical support zone, maintaining weekly closes above $67,000. If we finally lose this level, look for it to become resistance with the long-term POC on the volume profile now resting right there. $72,000 has proven to be significant resistance above here. Close above $72,000 opens up to $74,500, then we have $79,000 resistance above that.
Outlook for this week
With this week’s price action starting with a big dump on Sunday night, the outlook for this week is very weak. While the daily oscillators gave us hope for a turnaround over the past few weeks, they appear to be bearish now. The RSI is currently below the 13 SMA, while the MACD appears to be headed for a bearish cross below the zero line. Both of these signals being confirmed by a daily close should lead to more downside.
Market Sentiment: Very Bearish – The weekly candle this past week was not much different from the previous week, still weak, still bearish.
The next few weeks
The bulls have failed to generate any momentum after the rejection from $60,000 three weeks ago. Weekly oscillators are still in bearish territory with no sign of reversing, pointing to continued downside. The MRI indicator sits at a red 6 going into this week, suggesting four more weeks of bearish price action ahead unless price manages to close above $77,000 this week. This would be an extremely unlikely outcome to say the least. HOLD ON to your hats!
Terminology guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expect the price to be higher.
Bearish: Sellers or investors expect the price to fall.
Support or level of support: A level where the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more support, the weaker it becomes and the more likely it is not to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it becomes and the more likely it is not to hold the price back.
Volume profile: An indicator that shows the total amount of buying and selling at certain price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level where the highest volume of transactions took place.
SMA: Simple moving average. Average price based on closing prices over the specified period. In the case of RSI, it is the average strength index value over the specified period.
Oscillators: Technical indicators that vary over time but typically remain within a band between set levels. Thus, they oscillate between a low level (typically representing oversold conditions) and a high level (typically representing overbought conditions). EG, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD).
RSI Oscillator: The Relative Strength Index is a momentum oscillator that moves between 0 and 100. It measures the speed of price and changes in the speed of price movements. When the RSI is above 70, it is considered overbought. When the RSI is below 30, it is considered oversold.
MACD Oscillator: Moving Average Convergence-Divergence is a momentum oscillator that draws the difference between 2 moving averages to indicate trend as well as momentum.
Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI): A proprietary indicator created by Tone Vays. The MRI indicator tracks buyer and seller momentum and exhaustion, and provides signals to indicate when to expect momentum to dissipate and accelerate.