Bitcoin price rose to $115,000 on Monday, up more than 1% in 24 hours, as optimism over easing trade tensions between the US and China and renewed investor appetite for risk assets lifted global markets.
According to Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, the Bitcoin price “may never fall below $100,000 again” if this week’s macro tailwind continues.
In a note to clients, Kendrick said improved trade relations between Washington and Beijing have turned last week’s market fears into “hope.”
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s weekend announcement that restrictions on China’s rare earth exports could be delayed for a year, combined with reports that Beijing plans to buy large quantities of US soybeans, sparked a relief rally across stocks, commodities and crypto.
China, US trade deals and FOMC interest rate cuts
The deal, expected to be finalized after the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in South Korea, has renewed risk appetite and pushed the bitcoin-to-gold ratio back above pre-October 10 levels – the date 100% tariff threats sent markets tumbling.
Kendrick pointed to fresh inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs as another key signal of strength. More than $2 billion left U.S. gold ETFs at the end of last week, and if even half of that re-enters bitcoin funds, he said, it would mark a big vote of confidence.
The analyst also highlighted macro tailwinds, including expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut at Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting – a move widely seen as bullish for bitcoin.
Meanwhile, investors are seeing a packed earnings calendar from both tech and crypto heavyweights. Microsoft, Meta and Google are due to report on Wednesday, followed by Apple, Amazon, Coinbase and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) later this week.
“If this week goes well – bitcoin may never drop below $100,000 again,” Kendrick said.
Bitcoin price forecast
While bulls have made modest progress on Bitcoin, stronger resistance remains overhead at $117,600 and $122,000, leaving bears largely in control.
If Bitcoin manages to surpass $122,000, professionals note that the next target could be the upper limit of an extended wedge pattern at $128,000.
Support levels remain critical to maintain bullish momentum. The key short-term support at $106,900 held throughout last week, helping stabilize the market.
Falling below this level could open the way towards the $105,000-$102,000 support zone, which has already been tested twice, with a third test increasing the likelihood of a breakdown.
Beyond that, $96,000 represents a crucial long-term support level for the broader bull market, acting as a do-or-die floor if prices fall further.
At press time, bitcoin was trading at $115,041, up 1.22% over the past 24 hours.